Ocean freight rates rebound: Shanghai-Genoa up 7% after 13 weeks of decline

SATURDAY, 17 OCTOBER 2026

Drewry's World Container Index rises again on Asia-Europe: 3,945 dollars for a 40-footer from Shanghai to Genoa, more than double a year ago. Carriers are seeking new rates from 19 October.

Ocean freight rates from China to Italy are rising again: on 15 October Drewry's World Container Index put the cost of a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Genoa at 3,945 dollars, 7% more than a week earlier. It is the first Asia-Europe increase after thirteen consecutive weeks of decline, and carriers are already asking for higher rates from 19 October.

The World Container Index figures

Drewry's composite index rose 3% to 4,485 dollars per 40-foot container, after three weeks of decline. The rise came mainly from the routes between Asia and Europe; on the transpacific the picture is mixed. The comparison with a year ago shows the level: in mid-October 2025 the same Shanghai-Genoa lane was at 1,821 dollars.

• Shanghai-Genoa: 3,945 dollars per 40-foot container on 15 October 2026, up 7% on the week; it was 3,702 dollars on 1 October and 1,821 dollars on 16 October 2025.
• Shanghai-Rotterdam: 3,522 dollars on 15 October, up 6% on the week; it was 1,669 dollars a year earlier.
• Asia-Europe: first increase after 13 consecutive weeks of decline, according to Drewry.
• Composite World Container Index: 4,485 dollars, up 3% on the week, against 1,687 dollars in mid-October 2025.
• Transpacific: Shanghai-Los Angeles at 7,884 dollars (up 3%), Shanghai-New York at 10,075 dollars (down 1%).

Why ocean freight rates are rising now

Drewry links the increase to cargo flows resuming after Golden Week, the Chinese national holiday that began on 1 October, when factories close and departures fall. Once the break is over, orders start moving again and demand for space to Europe picks up.

On the pricing side, carriers are trying to lock in the recovery with new FAK rates (freight all kinds, the base price for general cargo) of 4,500 to 4,800 dollars per 40-foot container on Asia-Europe, effective 19 October. These are requests, not prices already paid: Drewry itself considers it uncertain that they will be applied in full.

More capacity coming: the rise may stall

Two factors work in the opposite direction. The first is blank sailings: on Asia-Europe carriers have announced two for the following week, against six in the week of 15 October, so the space actually available increases. The second is ships returning to the Suez Canal: a route shorter than the trip around Africa lets the same fleet sail more voyages, and capacity on the market grows even without new ships.

For this reason Drewry expects stable Asia-Europe rates the following week and, more broadly, a period of volatility driven by post-holiday demand, carrier capacity adjustments and geopolitical uncertainty.

What it means for importers

One week of data does not prove that a new phase of increases has begun: after thirteen weeks of decline, a 7% rebound may remain isolated. It does suggest, however, that the early-October low in rates may already be behind us, and that quotes received before Golden Week are worth checking again.

A few practical steps. Ask the forwarder whether the quote includes the new FAK rates from 19 October or is subject to revision: an announced increase can be applied even to bookings already confirmed, if the contract allows it. Compare quotes with the index value, which is an external and public benchmark, bearing in mind that the index does not include local surcharges, port costs and delivery. And redo the landed-cost calculation for orders shipping at the end of October: with freight more than double last year's level, on low unit-value goods transport weighs more than it did in 2025 estimates.

The year-on-year comparison

The weekly change makes the headline, but for a budget the level matters more. A 40-foot container from Shanghai to Genoa now costs more than twice as much as twelve months ago: 3,945 dollars against 1,821. For anyone with price lists or selling prices built on 2025 freight rates, it is worth updating the transport line before confirming new orders for the first quarter of 2027.

With La Merce, an order loading in Shanghai after 19 October is quoted with the updated rate of 3,945 dollars per 40-foot container and with written confirmation that any FAK rate of up to 4,800 dollars is already included in the price.

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