Air cargo in September: demand +6% and ever shorter contracts

FRIDAY, 2 OCTOBER 2026

According to Xeneta, global demand grows 6% year on year and spot rates rise to 3.10 dollars per kilo. Six out of ten new contracts last three months or less.

Air cargo in September confirmed growing demand and rising prices: according to data from analytics firm Xeneta, global volumes rose 6% year on year and spot rates averaged 3.10 dollars per kilo. The most useful signal for importers, however, concerns contracts: six out of ten new agreements signed in the third quarter last three months or less.

Air cargo figures for September

Capacity grew by only 2%, less than demand. The imbalance pushed up Xeneta's dynamic load factor, the indicator measuring how much of the available capacity is actually used, by volume and by weight.

• Global air cargo demand: +6% in September 2026 compared with September 2025.
• Capacity offered: +2% year on year in September 2026.
• Dynamic load factor in September: 62%, up two percentage points.
• Global average spot rate in September: 3.10 dollars per kilo, +27% year on year and +2% compared with August.
• China to Western Europe spot rate in September: 4.26 dollars per kilo, +10% in one month.

On the other routes to Europe, the spot rate from Northeast Asia rose 5% in one month, to 4.74 dollars per kilo, and from Southeast Asia by 3%.

Why contracts are getting shorter

The sharpest change concerns the way companies buy capacity. In the third quarter of 2026, contracts of three months or less accounted for 60% of new agreements, against 25% in the same period of 2025. Twelve-month deals fell from 40% to 25%, and those longer than twelve months almost disappeared, at 3%.

Xeneta links the shift to uncertainty over costs: Brent crude rose above 100 dollars a barrel in early September because of tensions in the Middle East, and jet fuel costs roughly double its pre-conflict level. With costs this volatile, according to Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's head of air freight, a one-year fixed-price deal does not fit current conditions: companies are looking for floating price mechanisms that follow the market.

What it means for importers

The figure does not say that rates will keep rising: Xeneta itself expects a muted final quarter, with October signals not pointing to a strong peak season. It does, however, point to a market in which a price fixed today may not hold in three months, in either direction.

Three useful steps. For recurring air shipments, ask your forwarder for quotes with an adjustment formula linked to fuel or to a market index, instead of a fixed annual price on which the carrier tends to add a safety margin. For urgent orders from China, budget for a rate of around 4.26 dollars per kilo and assess whether part of the goods could travel by sea. And review every quarter the ratio between transport cost and the value of the goods: for light, high-value items air remains worthwhile, for heavy, low-value products the margin is eaten up quickly.

A shorter market, not just a more expensive one

The overall reading is of a market that remains tight on capacity and is shifting price risk towards shorter agreements. For importers it is worth treating contract length as a variable to negotiate, just like the rate, and always asking how the price is updated during the period.

With La Merce, an air shipment from China to Europe is quoted starting from the September rate of 4.26 dollars per kilo and with a fuel adjustment clause, because today six out of ten new contracts last three months or less.

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