Chinese exports up 35.2% in October, surplus above 1 trillion dollars

TUESDAY, 10 NOVEMBER 2026

In October Chinese exports grew 35.2% and imports 41.6%: the surplus for the first ten months reaches 1.04 trillion dollars, more than 310 billion of it with the European Union.

Chinese exports grew 35.2% year on year in October, and China's trade surplus for the first ten months of 2026 passed 1 trillion dollars. That is what the data from China's General Administration of Customs, released on Tuesday 10 November, show, together with a sharp rise in imports.

Chinese exports in October: the numbers

Exports beat analysts' expectations but slowed slightly from September. Imports grew much faster than forecast, which is why the monthly balance narrowed. The year-to-date total is still the highest ever reached at this point of the year.

The main figures, all in dollars and confirmed by several sources:

• Chinese exports, October 2026: +35.2% on October 2025, against +33.5% expected in the Reuters poll and +36.3% in September.
• Chinese imports, October 2026: +41.6% year on year, against +32% expected and +31% in September.
• Trade surplus, October 2026: 105.3 billion dollars, against 133.5 billion in September.
• Cumulative trade surplus, January-October 2026: 1.04 trillion dollars, against the record 1.2 trillion for the whole of 2025.
• Trade surplus with the European Union, January-October 2026: more than 310 billion dollars.

A surplus above 1 trillion a month early

In 2025 China crossed the 1 trillion dollar surplus mark only in November. This year it got there by the end of October, and at the current pace 2026 is on track to beat last year's record.

By destination, October sales to the European Union grew more than 24% year on year and sales to the United States 32.9%, the latter from a low base after last year's tariffs. According to Citi, quoted by CNBC, further EU trade measures targeting China look plausible.

Why imports are rising too

The jump in imports is the new element this month. According to comments gathered by the international press, it was driven by the recovery of crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf and by demand for components and materials linked to artificial intelligence. Chinese customs have not yet published the full product breakdown, so the exact weight of each item is not known.

What the data show and what they do not

The figures measure the value of goods trade, in dollars, recorded by Chinese customs. They do not say how much capacity is free in factories or at what prices suppliers will sell: growth in value can come from volumes, prices or product mix, and the aggregate figures cannot separate these causes. Chinese statistics also often differ from those of partner countries.

The data do suggest two things. Foreign demand for Chinese products remains very strong in the very months of year-end orders, and an imbalance with Europe above 310 billion in ten months keeps tension high over trade defence measures.

What it means for importers

For those buying consumer goods, promotional products or components in China, the picture points to a context in which it is worth acting on three fronts.

First, timing: with exports growing by more than a third year on year, factories have less room on dates. It makes sense to book production slots now for deliveries in the first quarter of 2027, allowing for the Chinese New Year closure in February.

Second, duties: such a large European surplus makes new anti-dumping investigations or safeguard measures on individual categories more likely. It is worth checking whether your customs codes are already under investigation and stating in contracts who pays any duties introduced after the order.

Third, prices: with factories busy and upstream costs rising, it helps to ask for quotes with a clear validity period and to compare at least one second qualified supplier, in China or in another Asian country.

With La Merce, importers from China book first-quarter 2027 production slots in good time and check their customs codes, while China's surplus with Europe exceeds 310 billion dollars in ten months.

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