Container transhipment: ETS-linked changes in 41 of 86 services, study says

SUNDAY, 8 NOVEMBER 2026

A study commissioned by Italian shipowners looks at four transhipment ports and estimates up to 6.3 million TEU and 892 million euro of revenue at risk, while the Commission proposes cutting the anti-avoidance threshold from 65% to 50%.

Container transhipment: according to a study presented on 4 November 2026 at the European Parliament, 41 of 86 liner services calling at four transhipment ports in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic show changes potentially linked to the ETS, the EU carbon allowance system extended to ships. In some cases the European call has been replaced by a competing port in a non-EU country.

What the container transhipment study says

The study is signed by Giovanni Satta, a lecturer at the University of Genoa, with economic estimates by the firm T.I.M. 10, and was commissioned by Assarmatori, the Italian shipowners' association. It was presented in Brussels at the workshop "EU ETS Maritime: Safeguarding European Transhipment", hosted by MEP Letizia Moratti. It comes from an interested party asking for the rules to change: the figures are estimates and scenarios, not volumes already lost.

The analysis covers liner services calling at Gioia Tauro, Marsaxlokk in Malta, Sines in Portugal and Taranto. These are transhipment ports: large ships arriving from Asia unload containers, which then leave on smaller ships for other Mediterranean ports, Italy included. The study itself acknowledges that four ports do not represent the whole Mediterranean.

The figures in the Assarmatori study

The short-term scenario assumes that between 7.5% and 15% of exposed volumes move to hubs outside the EU. These are the main figures:

• Liner services with changes potentially linked to the ETS: 41 of the 86 analysed.
• Container traffic moved outside the EU in the scenario: 2.85 to 6.30 million TEU.
• Annual revenue of European ports at stake: 403 to 892 million euro.
• Equivalent port investment: 1.43 to 3.60 billion euro.
• Related jobs: 2,005 to 4,431.

Why the ETS pushes transhipment outside the EU

Since 2024 the ETS has applied to cargo and passenger ships of 5,000 gross tonnage and above. On routes between an EU port and a non-EU port, 50% of emissions count, calculated from the last call outside the EU. The obligation was phased in: carriers surrendered allowances for 40% of their 2024 emissions and for 70% of their 2025 emissions.

This creates a risk of avoidance. If a ship from Asia unloads at a nearby North African hub and the containers reach Italy on a smaller ship, allowances are paid only on the last leg. To prevent this, a non-EU port less than 300 nautical miles from an EU port does not count as a port of call today if transhipment exceeds 65% of its container traffic. In the list in force since the start of 2024 the Commission included Tanger Med in Morocco and East Port Said in Egypt.

The Commission proposal and the shipowners' requests

In July 2026 the Commission proposed revising these rules. The main changes:

• the transhipment threshold for non-EU ports within 300 miles falls from 65% to 50%;
• a new criterion covers ports within 150 miles of an EU port that have berths and cranes for transhipment;
• until 31 December 2035 containerships of 10,000 TEU and above could surrender fewer allowances on inbound voyages over 300 miles, in proportion to the containers transhipped in EU ports.

According to the study, anti-avoidance rules alone are not enough to stop transhipment from moving. Assarmatori asks for a stronger discount and for the compromise put forward by MEP Peter Liese: an incentive tied to the share of cargo transhipped in EU ports, a correction based on distance, counting both inbound and outbound voyages, and a ship size threshold lowered from 10,000 to 5,000 TEU. The proposal still has to go through Parliament and Council.

What it means for importers from Asia

The study does not measure the effect on freight rates or delivery times, so it does not say how much more importers will pay. It does signal that the routes bringing containers to Italy are changing and could change again with the rule revision. A container loaded in China can reach its destination after transhipment in Calabria, Malta or a North African port, and the route affects transit times and the ETS surcharge that carriers add to the freight rate.

It is worth asking the forwarder, for every quote, which transhipment port is planned and how many days it adds; comparing the ETS surcharge across services with different routings; stating in the contract who bears any increase in the surcharge after signature, since the rules are under review; and keeping a time buffer for seasonal goods, because a change of port can lengthen the voyage.

Before the next shipment

With La Merce, importers from Asia compare freight quotes knowing where the container is transhipped and what the ETS surcharge is worth on that route, before the revision proposed in July changes the list of ports again.

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