Il piano cinese per l'elettronica: 30 mila miliardi di yuan entro il 2030

China's electronics five-year plan: 30 trillion yuan by 2030

WEDNESDAY, 16 SEPTEMBER 2026

Circuiti integrati, calcolo avanzato, elettronica di consumo, di base e per l’energia: l’elenco delle priorità dice più del numero complessivo.

China's electronics five-year plan sets a revenue target of more than 30 trillion yuan by 2030. To understand what that means you need the figure almost nobody prints next to it: in the last year with verifiable data, 2024, the same sector made 16.19 trillion.

China's electronics five-year plan: the targets

The document was issued jointly by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission, and covers the fifteenth five-year plan period, from 2026 to 2030.

Sector revenue target for 2030: more than 30 trillion yuan
Revenue achieved in 2024 by firms above the reporting threshold: 16.19 trillion yuan
Revenue growth in 2024: plus 7.3% year on year
Average annual growth needed from 2024 to hit the target: around 10.8%
Research and development intensity set by the plan: 3.5%

The last item on the list is a calculation, not a figure from the document: going from 16.19 to over 30 trillion in six years requires that pace. It is worth stating because it puts the target in scale, and it is right to declare that the calculation is ours.

The threshold defining which firms enter the statistic is an annual revenue of at least twenty million yuan: it is the perimeter used by official Chinese surveys, and it does not coincide with "the whole sector".

Where the plan directs investment

The document identifies the fields in which China aims to build competitive positions: integrated circuits, advanced computing, consumer electronics, basic electronics and energy electronics.

It is worth pausing on what this list is and is not. It is a statement of political priority: it says where the state intends to channel investment and regulatory attention over the next five years. It is not a market forecast, and a plan target is not a result.

The gap between the 7.3% growth achieved in 2024 and the 10.8% average that would be needed measures the document's ambition, not its feasibility. From outside it cannot be established which of the two will prevail, and anyone asserting it is forecasting, not reading data.

Why it matters to buyers, not only to investors

The useful signal for a buyer is not the overall figure, it is the composition.

Historically, when industrial policy concentrates resources on a segment, production capacity and the number of suppliers in that segment increase. It is a recurring pattern, not a law: it helps form expectations, not treat them as certainties.

On that basis, the list of priorities says two different things to a buyer. In priority segments it is reasonable to expect more supply alternatives in coming years, and therefore more negotiating room. In non-priority segments it is better not to count on a widening of supply, and to look more carefully at dependence on a single supplier.

Then there is the research and development target, which has a practical consequence often overlooked: more product innovation means shorter life cycles. Anyone buying components should be asking now for how many years the code being purchased will stay in the catalogue.

Three questions to ask the supplier

The first is about positioning: does the product they sell you fall into one of the priority segments? The answer changes their investment prospects and their willingness to commit capacity to you.

The second concerns continuity of the item. It is worth asking in writing for a commitment on availability of the product and its spares, with a stated horizon: a mundane question almost nobody asks in advance, and everybody asks once the item is already discontinued.

The third concerns alternatives. If your supplier operates in a segment the plan pushes, in two years you may have more choice: mapping now who else makes that thing costs a few hours and pays off when negotiations stiffen.

With La Merce, reading China's electronics five-year plan means using it for what it is — a map of priorities, not a forecast — and asking the supplier whether your item sits inside or outside those segments, before you find out from the price list.