China trade surplus: exports up 36.3% in September, surplus with the EU at 34.8 billion

WEDNESDAY, 14 OCTOBER 2026

In September Chinese exports grew 36.3% and the trade surplus reached 133.5 billion dollars, 34.8 billion of it with the European Union.

China's trade surplus widened again in September: Chinese exports grew 36.3% year on year and the trade surplus reached 133.5 billion dollars, of which 34.8 billion with the European Union. That is what the figures released on 14 October by China's General Administration of Customs show.

China trade surplus: the September figures

The result beat expectations. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast export growth of 25.5%, practically the same pace as in August; instead growth accelerated by more than ten points, reaching its highest rate since February. Imports also beat forecasts, but the gap between what China sells and what it buys remains wide.

The key figures, confirmed by more than one source:

• Chinese exports, September 2026: +36.3% on September 2025, against +25% in August and the +25.5% expected by analysts.
• Chinese imports, September 2026: +31.0% year on year, against +28.2% in August and the +24.5% expected.
• Overall trade surplus, September 2026: 133.5 billion dollars.
• Trade surplus with the European Union, September 2026: 34.8 billion dollars.
• Cumulative trade surplus January-September 2026: 938.1 billion dollars, against the record 1,189 billion recorded over the whole of 2025.

The balance with Europe widens

The figure that most directly concerns European companies is the balance with the European Union. In a single month China sold EU countries 34.8 billion dollars more in goods than it bought from them, according to Chinese customs. The data came out a few days after the agreement between Brussels and Beijing on hybrid cars and a set of tariff cuts, which does not, however, address the overall trade imbalance.

This is where the comments focus. According to Capital Economics, quoted by Reuters, the growing surplus with Europe could push the EU to widen restrictions beyond last week's agreement, which was limited to a few sectors. At the pace of the first nine months, China's overall 2026 surplus is also on course to exceed the previous year's record.

What the numbers say and what they don't

The figures measure the value of goods trade, in dollars, recorded by Chinese customs. They do not say how much production capacity is free in Chinese factories, nor what prices European importers will pay. Export growth this fast can come from volumes, prices or product mix, and the aggregate figures do not allow these causes to be told apart.

The data does suggest two things, though. First, foreign demand for Chinese products remains very strong precisely in the months when year-end orders are placed. Second, the imbalance with Europe remains the central political issue in trade relations between Brussels and Beijing, and with it the possibility of new trade defence measures.

What it means for importers

For companies buying consumer goods, promotional items or components in China, the picture points to a context in which it is worth acting on three fronts.

First, timing: with factories busy on fast-growing foreign orders, it makes sense to confirm production slots now for first-quarter 2027 deliveries and to allow for the Chinese New Year shutdown in February, rather than relying on last year's lead times.

Second, tariff risk: a growing surplus with Europe makes new anti-dumping investigations or safeguard measures on individual product categories more likely. It is worth checking whether the customs codes of your goods are already under Commission investigation and specifying in contracts who bears any additional duties introduced after the order is signed.

Third, alternatives: for the most exposed products, having a second qualified supplier, in China or in another Asian country, reduces dependence on a single source if import rules change during the year.

With La Merce, companies importing from China check in good time whether their customs codes fall under EU investigations driven by an imbalance that reached 34.8 billion dollars in a single month, and lock in 2027 production slots with their suppliers.

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