Italian exports in the second quarter of 2026: what the +7.9% really says

TUESDAY, 15 SEPTEMBER 2026

Il numero che circola è congiunturale, il confronto annuo dice un’altra cosa. E la classifica per valore assoluto non coincide con quella per crescita.

Italian exports in the second quarter of 2026 grew by 7.9%, and that is the figure going around. It is worth looking at what it is measured against: it is the comparison with the previous quarter, not with the same period last year. These are two different questions, with two different answers.

Italian exports in the second quarter of 2026: the figures

• Italian exports in the second quarter of 2026: 175 billion euro
• Change against the first quarter of the year: plus 7.9%
• Imports in the same quarter: 161 billion euro, plus 6.6% on the first quarter
• Export growth in the first half against the same half of 2025: plus 4.5%
• Leading region by export value in the quarter: Lombardy, around 45 billion

The first two figures and the fourth are not in contradiction: they measure different things. The 7.9% says how much better the second quarter went than the first. The 4.5% says how much better the first half went than the same half a year earlier.

Why the basis of comparison changes the answer

A comparison between consecutive quarters is affected by seasonality and by how the quarter in the denominator went. A weak first quarter makes the second look brilliant even with unchanged activity. Comparison with the same period a year earlier neutralises that effect, because it sets like months against like.

Neither is truer than the other. They serve different questions: "is activity accelerating right now?" is a short-term question, "are we selling more than last year?" is a trend question. The problem arises when the figure for one question is used to answer the other, and that is what happens when the 7.9% is reported without saying against what.

There is a second label to keep attached to these figures: they are values in euro, not quantities. Growth in export value can come from more units sold, from higher prices, or from a mix of the two, and aggregate data does not separate the three. At a time when many price lists have moved, it is a qualification that matters.

For anyone deciding whether to widen a stock or hire, the useful answer is almost always the second.

Where it moved, and where it did not

The territorial picture is more interesting than the national average, because it is very uneven.

In the first half, on the annual comparison, the Centre grew by 11.9% and the Islands by 8.8%. The North-west rose by 4.3%, in line with the average, while the North-east stopped at 1.9% — and the North-east is where a substantial part of exporting manufacturing sits.

Among the regions, the sharpest increases are Basilicata at plus 29.5%, Tuscany at plus 23.8%, Apulia at plus 15.2% and Sardinia at plus 11.6%. This is where a ranking by absolute value misleads: Lombardy remains first for how much it exports, but the strongest change is elsewhere. The two rankings answer, again, different questions.

One detail that closely concerns importers: in the second quarter the province of Milan exported over 15 billion and imported around 25. It is the mark of a territory that buys from abroad far more than it sells, something the debate on exports tends to leave out of frame.

What to do with it, in practice

The first use is on your customers. If you supply companies that export, the useful figure is not the national average but the one for their area and their sector: a customer in the North-east is having a different year from one in Tuscany, and the aggregate number will not tell you that.

The second use is on the forecasts presented to you. When a supplier or a customer justifies a request with "the market is growing 7.9%", the question to ask is simple: against which period. It is the same check that applies to any percentage.

The third concerns imports, up 6.6% on the previous quarter. If you buy abroad, you are operating in a market where everyone else is buying more too: on supplies with limited capacity, being early counts for more than negotiating.

With La Merce, reading Italian exports for the second quarter of 2026 means always asking which period the growth is calculated against, because between the plus 7.9% quarter-on-quarter and the plus 4.5% year-on-year the decision that follows changes.

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