Container shipping delays: Asia-Mediterranean services 71% more unstable

FRIDAY, 6 NOVEMBER 2026

Cancelled sailings, services phased in and out, vessels slipping by a week: since 2020 the number of weekly services from Asia to the Mediterranean swings 71% more than in 2013-2019.

Container shipping delays from China have a less visible cause: the instability of liner services, meaning how many weekly sailings carriers actually offer. According to a Sea-Intelligence analysis published in early November, on the Asia to Mediterranean trade this instability rose by 71% in 2020-2026 compared with 2013-2019.

What the Sea-Intelligence analysis measures

The maritime analysis firm counted, week by week, the number of liner services offered on each major trade out of Asia. It then calculated how much that number swings around its own average: the standard deviation expressed as a percentage of the average, to account for the change in the number of services over time.

The swings come from four things: cancelled sailings (blank sailings), services phased in and out, vessels slipping into the following week and extra sailings added at the last minute. The comparison is between the post-pandemic period, from 2020 to 2026, and the seven years before, from 2013 to 2019.

Container shipping delays: the numbers trade by trade

Instability increased on every major export trade out of Asia, but most of all towards Europe:

• Asia-North Europe: weekly service instability up 78% in 2020-2026 compared with 2013-2019.
• Asia-Mediterranean: up 71% in the same comparison.
• Asia-North America West Coast: up 48%.
• Asia-North America East Coast: up 26%, the smallest increase among the trades analysed.
• Global vessel schedule reliability in September 2026: 50.6%, up 0.9 points on August, after three consecutive monthly drops totalling 14.8 points from 64.5% in May.

The Mediterranean figure covers the trade that brings goods made in China and South-East Asia into Italian ports. The analysis does not break the result down by country of origin or port of arrival: it shows how much the regularity of supply on the trade as a whole has changed.

Why irregular sailings lengthen lead times

According to Alan Murphy, chief executive of Sea-Intelligence, for shippers the constant swing in available capacity makes supply chain planning very hard. There is also an effect on arrival ports: when the number of arriving vessels and containers goes up and down from one week to the next, the risk of sudden congestion rises. Congestion lengthens vessel waiting times, worsens schedule reliability and lengthens transit times.

Global schedule reliability measured by the same firm confirms a difficult backdrop. In September only 50.6% of vessels arrived within the window set by the schedule, and late vessels were delayed by 6.65 days on average, 0.30 days less than in August but the second-highest figure ever recorded for a September.

The instability figure does not say how many days a single shipment is delayed, nor whether the trend will continue in 2027. It does signal that the sailing calendar out of Asia has become structurally less predictable than before 2020, and that the Mediterranean is among the trades hit hardest.

What it means for importers into Italy and Europe

For a company buying consumer goods, promotional items or components in China, the practical point is that the departure date confirmed by the forwarder is worth less than a few years ago. A cancelled sailing or a vessel moved by a week pushes back the arrival in Italy, and if more vessels than expected arrive at the same time the container may stay at the port a few extra days before discharge.

It is therefore worth planning with wider margins. Three measures help most: set the end of production at least one or two weeks before the desired departure, so the next vessel can be taken without missing the sales date; for orders with a fixed deadline, such as a trade fair or a promotional campaign, add a week of buffer to the transit time; ask the forwarder, when booking, whether the chosen service has had cancelled sailings in recent weeks.

For seasonal products the choice of arrival port also matters. If a trade is prone to congestion, considering an alternative port or a direct service, even at a slightly higher freight rate, can cost less than a late delivery to the end customer.

With La Merce, an order produced in China with a fixed delivery date is planned around sailings that, towards the Mediterranean, are now 71% more unstable than before 2020: production closed early, a backup vessel identified and goods inspected before loading.

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