China factory activity at 49.3 in October: export orders fall

SATURDAY, 31 OCTOBER 2026

Chinese industry drops back below 50 after a single month: new export orders fall to 48.7 and small factories to 47.5. Raw material costs are still rising, but less than in September.

China factory activity contracted in October: the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 from 50.1 in September, dropping back below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction after a single month above it. For buyers sourcing in China the most concrete signal is the fall in new export orders, down to 48.7 from 50.0, together with raw material costs that are still rising but more slowly than before.

China factory activity: the October numbers

The official PMI is published by China's National Bureau of Statistics and is built on a monthly survey of purchasing managers at manufacturing companies. Above 50, the share of companies reporting an improvement on the previous month exceeds the share reporting a deterioration; below 50 the opposite applies. It measures the direction of change, not quantities or values. The October figure was released on 31 October.

• Official manufacturing PMI: 49.3 in October, from 50.1 in September (down 0.8 points); the third reading below 50 in the last four months.
• Production index: 49.8, from 51.7 in September (down 1.9 points).
• New orders index: 49.4, from 50.5 (down 1.1 points).
• New export orders index: 48.7, from 50.0 in September.
• Main raw material purchase price index: 56.8, from 60.8 (down 4 points); factory-gate selling price index: 51.7, from 54.0 (down 2.3 points).

The decline affects both supply and demand: production and orders fall below 50 together. NBS statistician Huo Lihui attributed it partly to demand brought forward ahead of the National Day holiday in early October and to a complex international environment. The services and construction PMI also fell, to 49.7 from 50.2.

Large factories above 50, small and medium ones below

The average hides sharp differences by company size. The PMI for large manufacturers remains in expansion at 50.2, despite a 0.4-point drop. The reading for medium-sized companies is 48.4 and for small ones 47.5, both below the threshold.

By sector, high-tech manufacturing stands at 51.3 and equipment manufacturing at 50.6. The slowdown is therefore not uniform: technology and capital goods sectors are holding up better than the average.

This distinction matters for importers of consumer goods and promotional items, because these products often come from small and medium-sized companies rather than large industrial groups. The data does not say which factories are struggling, but it signals that pressure on orders and margins weighs more heavily on that segment.

Raw materials: costs still rising, but more slowly

The raw material price index remains well above 50: at 56.8, the share of companies paying more still clearly exceeds the share paying less. Compared with September, however, it lost 4 points, and official statements link the slowdown partly to recent declines in the prices of some non-ferrous metals and other commodities.

The same applies to factory-gate prices: 51.7, still above 50 but down 2.3 points. Note that the index shows how many companies raise prices, not by how much: a reading of 51.7 does not equal a 1.7% increase.

What it means for importers

The October combination, falling export orders and costs rising more slowly, suggests somewhat more room for negotiation than in September, when the cost index stood at 60.8. It does not prove that suppliers will cut their price lists, but it signals a moment when it is worth asking.

Three practical steps for orders in the coming months. Buyers who received a price increase request in September justified by raw materials can ask for a cost breakdown and compare it with current trends. For supplies from small and medium-sized companies it is worth checking the supplier's soundness before paying sizeable deposits, because these are the companies with the weakest index. For spring orders, asking several factories for quotes now makes it possible to compare offers while demand is weaker.

What to watch in the coming months

The production expectations index remains at 53.4, above 50: companies expect an improvement. The next official PMI, for November, will be released at the end of the month and will show whether October was just a holiday effect or the start of a weaker phase.

With La Merce, an order in China placed with a small or medium-sized factory starts with a supplier check and a quote renegotiated on current costs, now that the raw material index has fallen to 56.8 and new export orders to 48.7.

Let's talk about your productprojectconceptgoalbrandproductprojectconceptgoalbrandproductprojectconceptgoalbrandproduct