Ocean freight rates 2026: Maersk at 3,287 dollars per container, up 46%

THURSDAY, 5 NOVEMBER 2026

In the third quarter the Danish carrier earns 46% more for each 40-foot container while volumes fall 0.8%, and raises its 2026 operating profit outlook to 8-8.5 billion dollars.

Ocean freight rates 2026: in the third quarter Maersk earned on average 3,287 dollars for every loaded 40-foot container, 46% more than a year earlier. The Danish group, one of the largest carriers in the world, reported the figure on 5 November with its July-September results, raising its full-year outlook for the third time this year.

Ocean freight rates 2026: what Maersk's quarter shows

For anyone buying goods in Asia, the most useful figure is not the profit but the average price customers paid to ship a full container. In the third quarter this value rose far more than volumes: containers carried slipped slightly, while revenue at the ocean division grew 37% to 12.6 billion dollars. In other words, ships carried a little less cargo, but each box cost the shipper much more.

Maersk's average rate covers all the routes it serves, including cheaper intra-regional trades. It is therefore not the spot price on a single lane, such as Shanghai-Genoa, but it describes the direction of the market during the quarter well.

Third-quarter figures

• Average rate per loaded 40-foot container: 3,287 dollars, up 46% on the third quarter of 2025.
• Loaded containers: 3.37 million 40-foot units, down 0.8% on the same period of 2025.
• Group revenue: 18.1 billion dollars, up 27% year on year; ocean division operating profit 2.6 billion, against 567 million a year earlier.
• Average bunker fuel price: up 49% year on year, with consumption down 6.3%.
• Average vessel waiting time in ports: peak of 16.6 hours in August, the highest level since January 2023.

Why rates rose with fewer containers

According to Maersk, demand for container transport stayed solid, but part of the available capacity was tied up. Typhoons in East Asia congested ports and lengthened waiting times at anchor, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz diverted cargo flows and raised operating costs. The group's ships sailed at 96% utilisation.

Fuel worked the other way: the average price Maersk paid rose 49% in a year. Consumption fell 6.3%, helped by the partial return of ships to the Suez route, shorter than the trip around the Cape of Good Hope. In the same quarter the index of spot rates out of Shanghai (SCFI) rose 46% on the previous three months.

The new outlook for the whole of 2026

Maersk now expects underlying operating profit of 8 to 8.5 billion dollars for 2026, against the 4.5-6.5 billion indicated in August. Free cash flow is expected above 3 billion. The forecast assumes global container volume growth of around 4% for the year.

The group nonetheless points to three sources of uncertainty for the coming months: geopolitics, freight rates and fuel costs. The upgrade shows that third-quarter rates were higher than expected; it does not show that they will stay at that level until year end.

What it means for importers into Italy and Europe

The figure does not measure the price a single importer will pay on the next shipment: it is a global average, and already behind us. It does suggest, however, that in 2026 ocean transport has again become a significant part of the landed price, driven by fuel, congestion and longer routes more than by a surge in orders.

It is therefore worth asking the supplier or forwarder for quotes with a written validity date and the fuel surcharge shown separately, since that is the item that has moved most. For products with low value per cubic metre, such as bulky promotional items or packaging, it makes sense to recalculate the landed unit cost before confirming orders for the first quarter of 2027. Lead times also deserve a buffer: with port waits at their highest in almost three years, a delivery promised for a trade fair or a campaign should be planned a few weeks ahead.

With La Merce, anyone importing from China receives for each order the landed cost split between goods, freight and surcharges, so a 46% rise in transport shows up before signing and not on the invoice.

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