EU ETS shipping: carriers buy almost 20% of EU allowances

FRIDAY, 16 OCTOBER 2026

Shipping accounts for 10% of ETS emissions yet buys around 90 million allowances a year: what the shipowners' study says and what it means for the freight surcharge.

EU ETS shipping: according to a study by European shipowners, maritime transport accounts for about 10% of the emissions covered by the EU Emissions Trading System, yet buys around 90 million allowances a year, almost 20% of those auctioned. For importers from Asia the figure matters because that cost reaches the invoice as a freight surcharge, and in 2026 the share of emissions to be covered rises to 100%.

What the European shipowners' study says

The study was published on 15 October 2026 by the European Community Shipowners' Associations, ECSA, under the title "Creating a market for sustainable maritime fuels and technologies: How can ETS revenues contribute?". It comes from an interested party: the figures are shipowners' estimates, built on a reference price of 100 euros per allowance, not official data from Brussels.

The study is about where the revenue goes. The ETS revision proposed by the European Commission includes a mechanism called SMAP (Sustainable Maritime Alternative Propulsion), which would grant allowances to companies using low-emission fuels and technologies, to cover part of the cost gap with conventional fuel. According to the shipowners, the planned reserve is too small compared with what the sector pays in.

EU ETS shipping in figures: what the sector pays

These are the main numbers reported in the study:

• Maritime transport's share of emissions covered by the ETS: about 10%.
• Allowances bought by the sector each year: around 90 million, almost 20% of those auctioned.
• Estimated annual cost for the sector, at 100 euros per allowance: about 9 billion euros.
• SMAP reserve proposed by the Commission: 110 million allowances for 2028-2040, about 8.5 million a year, less than 10% of annual purchases.
• Reserve requested by shipowners: at least 330 million allowances, about 33 billion euros, a gap of around 220 million against the proposal.

The study also sets out how much of the price gap would be covered: 55% for biogas and advanced biofuels, 80% for hydrogen and low-carbon fuels, 90% for renewable fuels of non-biological origin and 90% of the additional cost of technologies. Sustainable marine fuels cost on average about four times as much as conventional ones.

How the ETS works for ships

The rules are set by the European Union and described by the Commission and the European Maritime Safety Agency. Since 1 January 2024, cargo and passenger ships of 5,000 gross tonnage and above fall under the system. On voyages within the European Economic Area 100% of emissions count; on voyages starting or ending outside it, such as Shanghai-Genoa, 50% count.

The obligation was phased in. In 2025 companies surrendered allowances for 40% of their 2024 emissions; in 2026 for 70% of their 2025 emissions; from 2027 for 100%, with a deadline of 30 September each year. From 1 January 2026, methane and nitrous oxide are counted as well as carbon dioxide. Emissions produced this year are therefore the first to be covered in full.

What it means for importers from Asia

Shipping lines recover the cost of allowances through an ETS surcharge on freight, which usually appears as a separate line in the quote. The study does not measure how much of that cost is passed on to shippers, so it does not say how much the surcharge will rise. The move from 70% to 100% of emissions to be covered, however, signals that the base on which carriers calculate the charge is broader in 2026 than in 2025.

The Commission's proposal and the shipowners' request concern 2028-2040 and still have to go through Parliament and Council. Even in the case most favourable to shipowners, the mechanism would return to the sector part of what it pays in, as support for new fuels: it is not a discount on the surcharge. It is worth, then, not counting on this charge falling in the coming years.

For buyers sourcing from Asia this suggests three practical precautions:

Ask for the ETS surcharge to be shown separately in every quote, with its validity period, so forwarders and carriers can be compared on the same basis. Check whether the charge is calculated on the whole voyage or only on the European share, since on non-EU routes 50% of emissions count. Put the surcharge into the landed cost of each product, alongside freight and duty, rather than treating it as an unexpected extra.

What to watch in the coming months

The ETS revision is still under discussion. The points to watch are the final size of the SMAP reserve, the list of technologies eligible for support and the market price of allowances, which determines how much each tonne emitted weighs. The study itself acknowledges that fuel prices, production capacity and the uptake of new technologies remain uncertain.

With La Merce, the ETS surcharge on a shipment from Asia goes into the quote as a separate, checked line, calculated on 50% of the emissions of the non-EU voyage: so the move to 100% of emissions covered in 2026 shows up in the product cost before the order, not in the freight invoice.

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