China steel production down 2.9% in nine months, but demand falls faster

WEDNESDAY, 4 NOVEMBER 2026

From January to September Chinese mills produced 724.77 million tonnes, domestic consumption fell 3.8% to 625 million and profits 27.4%: about 100 million tonnes more than domestic use.

China steel production fell to 724.77 million tonnes of crude steel in the first nine months of 2026, 2.9% less than in the same period of 2025. Apparent consumption fell faster, by 3.8% to 625 million tonnes: supply remains well above domestic demand.

China steel production: the January to September figures

The production figure comes from China's National Bureau of Statistics, released on 19 October, and matches the one from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), which rounds it to 725 million tonnes. The other figures come from the same association and from Chinese customs.

• Crude steel output: 724.77 million tonnes between January and September 2026, down 2.9% on the same period of 2025.
• Apparent consumption of crude steel: 625 million tonnes over nine months, down 3.8% year on year.
• Profits of the major steelmakers tracked by CISA: 71.8 billion yuan over nine months, down 27.4% year on year.
• Exports of finished steel products: 85.64 million tonnes between January and September, down 2.6% year on year; 10.49 million tonnes in September.
• Steel imports into China: 4.07 million tonnes over nine months, down 10.5% year on year.

Domestic demand is falling faster than supply

Apparent consumption is a derived measure: it adds production and imports and subtracts exports. It does not say how much steel was actually used on a building site or in a factory, but how much remained available in the country. The fact that it falls faster than output indicates that Chinese mills are cutting less than domestic demand is shrinking.

The gap between the two figures is about 100 million tonnes over nine months (our calculation: 725 minus 625). It should be read with care, because production and consumption are measured in crude steel, while customs exports count finished products, with different weights and categories. The comparison with the 85.64 million tonnes exported still signals that a large share of the steel made in China is looking for outlets abroad.

Profits at the mills tracked by CISA fell 27.4%, far more than volumes. The figure covers member companies only, not the whole sector, and on its own does not show whether lower selling prices or higher costs are to blame.

Exports and imports: what customs data show

According to Chinese customs data, exports of finished products fell 2.6% over nine months, but the decline narrowed from the first eight months, when it was 3%. In September shipments again topped 10 million tonnes, 3.3% more than in August. China's steel imports, already low, fell 10.5%.

These figures measure tonnes, not values in yuan or dollars: they do not show at what prices the steel was sold abroad or which countries it went to. Nor do they show how much reached Europe, where steel imports are governed by their own quotas and trade defence measures.

What it means for importers into Italy and Europe

The data do not prove that prices of steel products bought in China will fall, but they suggest a context in which some checks are worthwhile. The balance between supply and domestic demand concerns the raw material, and it reaches buyers of components, tools, household items, small hardware or promotional metal products only indirectly.

For those ordering finished products with a lot of steel in them, such as shelving, cookware, tools, vacuum bottles or metal gadgets, this is a good moment to request updated quotes and to separate the cost of the material from the cost of processing in the price: if a supplier cites higher raw material costs, the data for these months do not back that up.

It is also worth asking the supplier which mill the material comes from and with which certificate. In a market where profits are falling sharply, the pressure to save on metal quality, thickness or surface treatments may increase: sample testing and pre-shipment inspections protect against that risk.

Those who import steel semi-finished products directly must instead take into account EU rules on quotas and origin, which set how much steel can enter without additional duties.

Chinese steel at 725 million tonnes: how to use it in orders

With La Merce, buyers of steel products from China can use the nine-month figures, output down 2.9% and domestic consumption down 3.8%, to renegotiate quotes on the real cost of the material, with mill certificates and sample checks before the order.

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