China producer prices up 5% in September, the fastest since 2022

WEDNESDAY, 14 OCTOBER 2026

In September factory-gate prices in China rose 5.0% year on year, the fastest pace since June 2022, with increases concentrated in energy, metals and chemicals.

China producer prices rose at their fastest pace in more than four years: in September factory-gate prices in China were 5.0% higher than a year earlier, up from 3.8% in August. It is the highest rate since June 2022, according to data released on 14 October by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

China producer prices: the September data

The producer price index, or PPI, measures the prices at which Chinese industrial companies sell their goods at the factory gate, on the domestic market and in yuan. In September the index accelerated sharply: +1.2% in a single month. The prices the same factories pay for raw materials, energy and semi-finished goods also rose, and faster than their selling prices.

The key figures, confirmed by more than one source:

• Producer prices (PPI): +5.0% in September compared with September 2025, up from +3.8% in August.
• Month-on-month change: +1.2% between August and September.
• Industrial purchase prices (raw materials, energy, semi-finished goods): +6.9% year on year in September.
• Average for the first nine months of 2026: producer prices +2.3%, purchase prices +3.6% year on year.
• Consumer prices (CPI): +0.9% year on year in September; core inflation, excluding food and energy, +1.0%.

Where prices are rising: energy, metals, chemicals

The increase is not evenly spread. According to the NBS, the main push comes from international crude oil and non-ferrous metal prices and from coal stockpiling ahead of winter. Among companies' purchase prices, year on year, non-ferrous materials and wire rose 20.0%, fuel and power 13.6% and chemical raw materials 12.6%. On the selling side, coal mining prices rose 35.3% and oil and gas extraction 24.5%.

The increase also reaches downstream goods, but to a lesser extent. Producer prices for computers, communications and electronic equipment rose 5.8% year on year, and electrical machinery and equipment 6.2%. Cars went the other way, at -2.0%.

What the index measures and what it does not say

The PPI is not an export price index. It measures prices in yuan on the Chinese market, and a supplier selling abroad also sets its price list according to the exchange rate, competition and export tax rebates. The data therefore does not show that prices paid by European importers have already risen by 5%. It does signal that suppliers' costs are growing, especially where metals, plastics, chemicals and energy weigh heavily, and that purchase prices are outpacing selling prices: a margin squeeze that producers usually try to pass on to their customers.

Economists themselves do not read the figure as overheating Chinese demand. According to Capital Economics, quoted by Reuters, much of the pressure comes from commodity supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, and prices are expected to fall back next year. Consumer prices holding below 1% confirm that domestic demand is still weak.

What it means for importers

For companies buying consumer goods, promotional products or components in China, the data suggests preparing for price increase requests in the coming weeks, particularly for metal products, cables, electronics, plastic items and packaging. It is worth acting on three fronts.

First, price lists: ask suppliers how long current quotations remain valid and confirm in writing the prices of orders already agreed for year-end and first-quarter 2027 deliveries.

Second, the cost breakdown: asking which share of the price depends on metals, resins or energy makes it possible to judge whether an increase request is proportionate. A 20% rise in non-ferrous metals does not justify the same increase on a product in which metal accounts for a tenth of the cost.

Third, contracts: for ongoing supplies it pays to link any adjustment to a public commodity index, with defined thresholds and reference periods, rather than renegotiating the price with every order.

With La Merce, companies importing from China check item by item whether the increase a supplier asks for really matches the +20% in non-ferrous metals or the +5.8% in electronics, and lock in prices for 2027 orders in good time.

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