Air cargo market in October: demand up 6%, the shift back to ocean from 2027

SATURDAY, 7 NOVEMBER 2026

Spot rates at 3.11 dollars per kilo, up 29% in a year, and no year-end peak: according to Xeneta, cargo moved to air out of fear of ocean delays will return to ships most likely from the second quarter of 2027.

Air cargo market: in October global demand for air freight grew 6% on a year earlier, with average spot rates at 3.11 dollars per kilo. According to the analytics company Xeneta, however, part of the cargo that moved from ship to plane for reliability reasons should return to ocean, most likely from the second quarter of 2027.

The air cargo market in October in numbers

Xeneta's monthly data, released on 6 November, describe a growing market without the usual year-end acceleration. These are the main figures:

• Global air cargo demand in October: +6% on October 2025, the seventh consecutive month of year-on-year growth after -3% in March.
• Capacity offered: flat on a year earlier.
• Dynamic load factor (weight and volume): 63%, up 2 points on October 2025.
• Global average spot rate: 3.11 dollars per kilo, +4% on September and +29% on October 2025.
• Air share of trade between Asia and the European Union (Eurostat data): 1.1% in 2023, 1.7% in 2024, 1.2% in 2025 and 1.3% in the first eight months of 2026.

The March decline coincides with the start of the Middle East conflict, which closed Gulf airspace. Since April demand has grown every month.

A peak season that does not arrive

For Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's chief airfreight officer, the market is strong but this is not a real peak season, and the time for volumes to climb further is running out. Demand is steady, but the acceleration usually seen in the last months of the year is missing.

The rise in rates is therefore linked to demand growing while capacity stands still, not to a year-end rush. For 2027 Xeneta's baseline scenario is an overall decline in air freight rates, with the caveat that capacity and geopolitics remain highly uncertain.

Why cargo moved from ship to plane

The most useful part of the analysis concerns the relationship between air and ocean. Using Eurostat data, Xeneta shows that the air share of trade between Asia and Europe has moved together with container ship punctuality. In 2024, at the height of the Red Sea crisis, the share rose to 1.7% while schedule reliability between the Far East and Northern Europe collapsed from 28% to 9.3%. In 2025 punctuality recovered to 20% and the air share fell back to 1.2%.

In the first eight months of 2026 the share edged up again, to 1.3%, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Xeneta separates two kinds of cargo: goods that fly because they must arrive quickly, and goods that ended up on a plane only because the ship could not guarantee an arrival date. It is this second part that, according to the company, will return to ocean once ship punctuality shows a sustained recovery, most likely from the second quarter of 2027.

What it means for importers into Italy and Europe

For companies buying consumer goods, promotional items or components in China, the figure does not say what a single shipment will cost in the coming months. It does suggest two things. First: air freight today costs 29% more than a year ago and there are no signs of a year-end spike, so for urgent November and December orders it is worth asking for a spot quote and comparing it with contract rates, without assuming a price rise.

The second concerns 2027. If Xeneta's forecast comes true, companies that over the past two years moved non-urgent goods to air out of fear of ocean delays will be able to go back to ships, saving on transport. It is worth doing carefully: going back to ocean means accepting longer transit times and planning production weeks ahead, and container ship punctuality should be checked first, not taken for granted. A gradual shift, starting with goods with the least rigid deadline, signals less risk than a sudden change.

Choosing between air and ocean case by case

The decision remains tied to the individual product. Air makes sense for light, high-value goods or goods with a fixed selling date, such as a promotional campaign or a trade fair. Ocean makes sense for heavy and bulky volumes, where freight weighs heavily on the final price. Between the two extremes are the goods that fly today only out of caution: they are the first to review once ship schedules become reliable again.

With La Merce, an order produced in China is assigned to air or ocean according to the real delivery deadline: with air rates at 3.11 dollars per kilo and a possible return to ocean from 2027, production is closed in time to choose the cheaper mode without missing the date.

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