After Golden Week: what to expect from Chinese factories and shipping

TUESDAY, 6 OCTOBER 2026

China's national holiday is over, production restarts and year-end orders are being closed. Delivery dates, freight rates and price lists to recheck now.

After Golden Week Chinese factories reopen: the national holiday week, from 1 to 7 October 2026, is over and production restarts just as many European importers need to close their orders for winter and Christmas. It is the time to check three things: the delivery dates promised before the break, the freight rate for late-October departures and price lists, weighed down by rising raw material costs.

What happened during the break

During Golden Week most Chinese factories stay closed and departing volumes from the ports fall. Drewry, the analysis firm that publishes the World Container Index, had therefore expected a further drop in freight rates during the holiday week, after twelve consecutive weeks of decline on the Asia-Europe route. Carriers, for their part, have announced base rate increases for the second half of October, but Drewry itself considers their application uncertain.

• 1-7 October 2026: China's national holiday week, Golden Week.
• 3,702 dollars: the Shanghai-Genoa freight rate for a 40-foot container on 1 October, according to the World Container Index.
• Twelve weeks: the run of consecutive declines in Asia-Europe rates recorded by Drewry on 1 October.
• 50.1: China's official manufacturing PMI for September, back above the 50 threshold after two months.
• 60.8: the raw material cost index in the same survey, up 4.2 points on the month.

After Golden Week: delivery times

Orders placed before the break are the first to check. A week of closure pushes production forward, and the restart is not always immediate: it is common for some departments to return to full capacity only after a few days, and for smaller suppliers to give priority to customers with larger volumes. A delivery date confirmed in September should therefore be reconfirmed now, in writing.

The same applies to pre-shipment inspections: if they were scheduled close to the break, it pays to reschedule them according to the new production calendar, rather than discovering at unloading that the goods left without being checked.

Freight rates and price lists

On the transport side, those shipping in late October face lower rates than in summer, but also increases announced by carriers. It is worth requesting several quotes right away and reading validity and adjustment clauses, because a base rate increase can be applied even to bookings already made if the contract allows it.

On factory prices, September's purchasing managers' survey signals that a growing share of Chinese companies sees raw material costs rising and has started to adjust price lists. The data does not say by how much, but suggests not taking for granted prices offered before the break.

What it means for importers

The data does not show that every order will face delays or price rises, but it signals a delicate window: production restarting, freight rates moving and costs rising, all in the weeks when year-end deliveries are decided. For those selling seasonal items, such as Christmas goods, the margin for error is minimal.

Three concrete steps. Reconfirm in writing the production and shipping dates of open orders. Lock the price with explicit validity until loading. And book space on ships in the last weeks of October early, comparing offers with the freight rate index.

With La Merce, an open order in China after Golden Week is reconfirmed immediately with production date, price locked until loading and freight quoted against the 3,702 dollar Shanghai-Genoa value, before the increases announced for late October take effect.

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