Chinese exports to Europe: just +6.6% while the rest of the world races ahead

SUNDAY, 13 SEPTEMBER 2026

In the first eight months of 2026 Chinese trade rose 17.6%, but in August exports to the EU grew just 6.6%: what it means for companies buying from China.

Chinese exports to Europe grew 6.6% in August, while China's overall exports were running three or four times faster towards other markets. This is not a statistical detail: it is the picture of a supplier that has stopped depending on the European buyer.

The figures for the first eight months

According to data released on 8 September by China's General Administration of Customs, the country's goods trade in the first eight months of 2026 rose 17.6% year on year, reaching 34.78 trillion yuan. Exports grew 14.6% to 20.17 trillion, imports 22% to 14.61 trillion.

August alone accounts for 4.65 trillion yuan, up 19.8% on the previous year. It is the sixth consecutive month above the 4-trillion threshold and the fourth in a row with double-digit growth.

• January to August trade: 34.78 trillion yuan, up 17.6%
• Exports: 20.17 trillion yuan, up 14.6%
• Imports: 14.61 trillion yuan, up 22%
• August, single month: 4.65 trillion yuan, up 19.8%
• Trade with ASEAN countries: 5.95 trillion yuan, up 20.6%

Chinese exports to Europe: the slow lane

August's geographical breakdown, measured in dollars, tells a different story from the aggregate figure. Chinese exports to the United States rose 34.4%, to 42.5 billion dollars. Those to Southeast Asia grew 30.2%. To the European Union, 6.6%.

The gap is wide and worth reading for what it is. European demand is not driving the growth of Chinese exports: the North American and Asian markets are. For a supplier in China, the European customer weighs less today than it did a year ago.

One clarification on the figures, because confusing them leads to wrong conclusions: the cumulative year-to-date data are expressed in yuan, August's market breakdown in dollars. The two bases are not directly comparable, which is why August shows both an 18.6% rise in exports in yuan and a 25% rise in dollars.

Imports are growing faster than exports

There is a second figure that often goes unnoticed and matters at least as much as the first. In August Chinese imports grew 28.2%, after 27.5% in July. It is the sixth consecutive month in which imports grow faster than exports.

China, in other words, is buying. Raw materials, components, semi-finished goods: everything a production machine needs once it is running at full capacity again. Car exports rose 43% in August, semiconductor exports 129.8%.

Anyone buying from China therefore faces a supplier that is purchasing more inputs, in a market where competition for those same inputs has increased. That pressure tends to pass through to purchase prices, with the usual lag of contracts already negotiated.

What changes for importers

The practical consequences are three, and none of them requires waiting for next quarter's data to be taken seriously.

The first concerns bargaining power. A supplier with orders growing 30% towards other markets concedes less on prices, minimum order quantities and deadlines. Anyone negotiating today with the same firmness as a year ago risks obtaining worse terms, not equal ones.

The second concerns timing. A factory working at full load stretches delivery dates before it announces doing so. It is worth asking for written confirmation of lead times instead of assuming those of the last order still hold, and checking available capacity before committing to the end customer.

The third concerns purchase costs. With Chinese imports growing 28%, assuming stable price lists for the coming months is optimistic. Fixing prices in writing, with a stated validity, protects more than a verbal agreement renewed quarter by quarter.

The picture is not one of a market closing up, but of a market in which the European buyer is no longer the privileged counterpart. Recognising this in time allows a company to adapt how it buys, instead of discovering the gap when the order confirmation arrives.

With La Merce, negotiating with a Chinese supplier growing 34.4% towards the United States and only 6.6% towards Europe means entering talks knowing how much the European customer really weighs: prices and minimum order quantities are fixed in writing, with a stated validity.

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