China's manufacturing PMI at 50.1: factory costs and prices rise

FRIDAY, 2 OCTOBER 2026

In September Chinese industry returns to expansion after two months. But the raw material cost index jumps to 60.8 and the selling price index to 54.

China's manufacturing PMI returned above 50 in September: the official purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 from 49.8, after two months of contraction. For importers from China, however, the most relevant figure is another: the raw material price index jumped to 60.8 and the factory selling price index to 54.0, a sign that costs are rising and factories are starting to pass them on to their price lists.

The September PMI figures

The PMI is an index built on a survey of company purchasing managers: above 50 signals expansion compared with the previous month, below 50 contraction. It does not measure quantities or prices in absolute terms, but the share of companies seeing an increase against those seeing a decrease. The official one is published by China's National Bureau of Statistics.

• Official manufacturing PMI: 50.1 in September, from 49.8 in August, the first reading above 50 after two months.
• Production: 51.7, from 50.4, an increase of 1.3 points.
• New orders: 50.5, from 50.6; new export orders: 50.0, from 50.1.
• Main raw material prices: 60.8, up 4.2 points on the month.
• Factory selling prices: 54.0, up 3.6 points on the month.

Production runs ahead of orders

September's recovery is driven mainly by production, while orders remain almost flat: new orders dip slightly and export orders stop exactly at the 50 threshold. Several analyses point out that production is running ahead of demand, a balance that holds as long as factories can build up inventories or find outlets.

The private RatingDog survey, produced with S&P Global on a different sample of companies, gives a stronger picture: 52.1 in September, from 51.5 in August. The gap between the two indices is part of the debate on how solid the recovery of Chinese industry is.

China's manufacturing PMI and factory prices

The figure that directly concerns buyers is the one on prices. Official statements attribute the rise in raw material costs to higher international commodity prices and to growing demand in some sectors. When the selling price index also rises above 50, it means a growing share of factories is raising price lists, not just absorbing costs.

It should be remembered that the index says how many companies raise prices, not by how much. A value of 54 does not equal a 4% increase: it indicates that companies raising prices outnumber those cutting them, without measuring the size of the change.

What it means for importers

The data does not show that every Chinese supplier will raise prices, or by how much, but it signals a context in which requests to revise price lists become more likely, especially for products where raw materials weigh heavily on cost, such as metal and plastic. It is worth acting before they arrive.

Two useful steps. On orders already negotiated, check the offer's validity and ask the supplier to confirm the price in writing until the shipping date. On new orders, ask for the price breakdown by raw material, so you can judge whether a proposed increase is in line with commodity trends or should be negotiated.

An industry restarting, but on narrow foundations

The overall reading is of a real but fragile recovery: production accelerates, orders do not, and companies reporting rising costs outnumber those able to raise prices, a sign of margins under pressure. For importers it is a combination to watch in the coming months, because tight margins and rising costs are the typical setting in which suppliers ask for adjustments or look for savings on materials and finishes.

With La Merce, an order in China of metal or plastic items is closed with the price locked in writing until loading, because in September the raw material cost index rose to 60.8.

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