World trade forecast: WTO raises 2026 goods growth to 3.9%

THURSDAY, 8 OCTOBER 2026

The WTO's new forecasts double goods trade growth in 2026. Almost half comes from goods for artificial intelligence, while Europe stands still.

The world trade forecast has doubled: goods trade will grow 3.9% in 2026, according to the World Trade Organization, which revised its estimates on 8 October, raising them from 1.9% in March. Almost half of the growth comes from goods linked to artificial intelligence, while Europe lags behind: its merchandise exports are expected to edge down.

The WTO's new world trade forecast

The estimates concern volumes, that is, quantities traded net of price changes. The revision is large for goods and in the opposite direction for services, which the WTO now sees growing less than assumed in spring. For 2027 the organization expects a further acceleration in goods trade.

• Goods, 2026: +3.9% in volume, against 1.9% forecast in March.
• Goods, 2027: +4.1%, against 2.6% forecast in March.
• Services, 2026: +3.3%, down from the 4.8% estimated earlier.
• Goods linked to artificial intelligence: 14.8% of world merchandise trade in the first half of 2026 and about 47% of its growth.
• Merchandise exports in 2026: Asia +9.9%, North America +5.7%, Europe -0.1%.

Artificial intelligence drives goods

The engine of the revision is chips, servers and equipment for data centres. In the first half of 2026 these goods grew 67% compared with the same period a year earlier, and their share of world merchandise trade rose to 14.8%, against 7-8% in the years between 2016 and 2023. Without them, trade growth would have been much more modest.

It is growth concentrated in a few sectors and a few countries, mostly Asian, where semiconductors and electronic components are made. This is why Asia tops the export ranking, while other areas stand still or fall back.

Europe flat, Middle East down

For Europe the WTO expects essentially flat merchandise exports, at -0.1% in 2026. The hardest picture is in the Middle East, where merchandise exports are expected to fall 17.2%, amid conflict and strong tensions over energy.

Energy is precisely the main risk flagged by the organization. Brent crude hit a peak of 138 dollars a barrel in April and has settled back around 100 dollars, and the WTO raised its global inflation forecast for 2026 from 3.7% to 4.7%. A slowdown in artificial intelligence investment, it warns, would hit trade precisely where it is growing most today.

What it means for importers

The data does not show that Asian supplies will become more expensive or slower, but it signals that AI-related electronics account for a growing share of trade leaving Asia. For those buying electronic components, cables or accessories in that region, it is worth checking delivery times earlier than usual.

The second point concerns energy. With oil around 100 dollars, fuel surcharges weigh on ocean and air freight: it pays to ask for quotes that show the base rate and surcharges separately, so you can see how much of the price depends on oil and how much on the transport market.

Stronger trade, but more concentrated

The upward revision is good news for trade as a whole, but it describes unbalanced growth: lots of Asian electronics, little European demand, expensive energy. For an Italian importer it means operating in a market where flows from Asia remain intense while ancillary costs, from energy to transport, stay under pressure.

With La Merce, importers of electronic accessories or components from Asia, the goods driving the 3.9% world trade forecast, set delivery times early and receive transport quotes with base rate and surcharges shown separately.

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