Iperammortamento o crediti d'imposta: cosa dice l'UPB sugli incentivi ai macchinari

Hyper-depreciation or tax credits: what the UPB says about machinery incentives

FRIDAY, 2 OCTOBER 2026

At its 29 September hearing, Italy's Parliamentary Budget Office compared incentives since 2016: the 2020-22 tax credits had wider effects than the 2017-19 allowance.

Hyper-depreciation or tax credits: according to Italy's Parliamentary Budget Office, the tax credits of 2020-22 had stronger effects on investment and employment than the increased depreciation allowance of 2017-19, and reached more small firms and more companies in the South. The comparison comes as the budget law has brought back precisely the increased allowance, for investments from 2026 to 30 September 2028.

The UPB hearing of 29 September

The analysis was presented on 29 September 2026 to the Productive Activities Committee of the Chamber of Deputies, as part of the inquiry into the competitive capacity of the Italian economy. The presentation, by Libero Monteforte, director of the UPB's Macroeconomic Analysis Service, covered the growth gap with Europe and the need to support productivity with innovative investment, with a focus on business incentives.

How incentives for capital goods have changed

2016-2019: increased depreciation allowance on capital goods, with super-depreciation and hyper-depreciation.
2020-2025: tax credits for investment in capital goods, under the Transition 4.0 and later 5.0 schemes.
From 2026 to 30 September 2028: a new increased depreciation allowance for 4.0 goods and for 5.0 tangible goods.
2026 increase on the cost of the goods: 180% up to 2.5 million euros, 100% between 2.5 and 10 million, 50% between 10 and 20 million.
Value estimated by the UPB for 4.0 and 5.0 tangible goods: discounted tax saving of about 40% up to 2.5 million, almost 23% between 2.5 and 10 million, just over 11% between 10 and 20 million.

The discounted tax saving is the yardstick the UPB uses to compare different instruments: it measures how much each euro invested is worth today in taxes saved. For 4.0 intangible goods, excluded from the credit in 2025, the new allowance is worth significantly more than previous schemes, except for small investments under the 2022 regime.

Hyper-depreciation and tax credits: the difference that matters

The difference is not only one of size. A tax credit brings the benefit closer to the moment of investment and can be used even without profits, because it requires neither profitability nor sufficient taxable income. A deduction spreads the benefit over the useful life of the asset and only works if the company has income to apply it to.

For public finances the picture is reversed: credits make the cost less predictable and concentrate it in time, deductions spread it out but are monitored later, because they only emerge from the following year's tax returns. According to the UPB, the choice to return to deductions is explained by public finance reasons.

What the impact assessment says

The most useful part for companies is the ex post assessment. Comparing beneficiary firms, the UPB finds larger increases in the investment rate and in employment with the 2020-22 tax credits than with the 2017-19 allowance. The credits reached more small firms and more companies in the South, and a wider range of sectors: the allowance was concentrated in manufacturing, while the credit also spread to construction and some services.

The UPB warns that the estimated effects remain heterogeneous and that the incentives were used mainly by companies that were already performing well, with profitability and investment above average. The figure therefore does not prove that every company invested more thanks to the credit, but it suggests that the instrument widened the pool of beneficiaries.

What it means for companies buying machinery

For companies planning to buy machinery, including from abroad, the practical consequence concerns taxable capacity. With the increased allowance the advantage arrives over the years, through lower taxes: a company with low profits or losses risks not using it in full.

Three useful checks before signing the order. Estimate with your accountant the profits expected in the coming years, to understand how much of the allowance can actually be deducted. Take the bracket into account: above 2.5 million of investment the value of the incentive falls to about 23%, above 10 million to just over 11%. And plan delivery times, because the allowance covers investments made by 30 September 2028 and machinery produced abroad can take months between order, testing and shipment.

With La Merce, machinery bought abroad under the hyper-depreciation scheme is ordered with a delivery compatible with the 30 September 2028 deadline, because the saving estimated by the UPB at about 40% only arrives after the investment, through the following years' taxes.