Container ship orderbook at 46.5% of the fleet, the highest since 2009

FRIDAY, 30 OCTOBER 2026

Shipyards hold orders for 16.2 million TEU of container ships, 46.5% of the fleet in service: the highest ratio since 2009. BIMCO expects the fleet to grow 9% in 2027, faster than transport demand.

The container ship orderbook has reached 16.2 million TEU, equal to 46.5% of the fleet in service: the highest ratio since 2009. The figure comes from the latest survey by Linerlytica, a container shipping analysis firm, reported by the international trade press on 21 and 22 October.

Container ship orderbook: the October numbers

The TEU is the unit used to measure container ship capacity: one 20-foot container. The ratio between orders and fleet shows how much new capacity is already under contract compared with what sails today. At 46.5%, for every two TEU in service almost one is under construction or waiting to be laid down.

The orderbook is driven mainly by the largest ships. According to Linerlytica, MSC has reportedly ordered another 20 ships of about 24,000 TEU each from the Chinese yard Hengli, for about 480,000 TEU in total. The carrier has not confirmed the order and the price and delivery dates are not known.

The main figures, confirmed by more than one source:

• Capacity on order at shipyards: 16.2 million TEU in October 2026, according to Linerlytica.
• Ratio of orders to the fleet in service: 46.5%, the highest level since 2009.
• World container ship fleet: over 34 million TEU in September 2026, according to BIMCO.
• Fleet growth forecast by BIMCO: +4.6% in 2026 and +9% in 2027.
• World container volumes carried: +5.1% in the first seven months of 2026 on the same period of 2025.

Ship supply and demand in 2027

BIMCO, the international shipowners' association, published its container market outlook at the end of September. At that date it counted over 14 million TEU on order, 42% of the fleet: the two surveys use different methods, but both describe a growing orderbook.

For 2027 BIMCO expects effective ship supply to grow by 5% to 6%, less than the fleet because it also reflects how the ships are deployed. Transport demand, by contrast, would grow by 0.5% to 2.5% if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed, and by 2.5% to 4.5% if traffic returned to normal. In both scenarios supply outpaces demand, and the association expects the market to weaken during 2027.

Then there is the Suez variable. Today many ships between Asia and Europe sail around Africa, and the longer voyages absorb capacity. According to BIMCO, a full return to the canal route would cut demand for ships by about 10% compared with a scenario in which the Cape of Good Hope remains the preferred route.

What it means for importers from Asia

Orderbook data do not say what a container will cost next year: freight rates also depend on how many ships carriers decide to idle, on cancelled services and on crises along the routes. Carriers can cut supply by blanking sailings when prices fall.

The picture does, however, point to three aspects to consider when planning purchases.

The first concerns freight contracts. If ship supply grows faster than demand, bargaining power tends to shift towards shippers. It is worth avoiding long fixed-rate commitments in the year-end negotiations and preferring contracts with periodic reviews or indexed to market rates.

The second concerns reliability. New ships enter service in batches and carriers fit them in by reorganising their loops: during these reshuffles ports of call, departure days and transit times can change. It pays to check with the forwarder which services the goods travel on before setting delivery dates with customers.

The third concerns timing. The strongest fleet growth is expected in 2027, not in the coming months. For orders linked to Chinese New Year in February 2027 the market remains the current one, with tensions on the routes and congestion in Asian ports.

The 2009 precedent

2009 is the last year in which the orderbook-to-fleet ratio was higher than today. Ships ordered in the boom years then entered service during the financial crisis, when transport demand had fallen. The comparison does not prove the scenario will repeat: today demand for ships is supported by route diversions and port congestion. The figure does suggest, however, that carriers' safety margin is thinner than this season's freight rates indicate.

With La Merce, importers from Asia can set up their 2027 freight contracts with a fleet that BIMCO expects to grow by 9% in mind, with renegotiable rates and the choice of services checked ship by ship.

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