Parcels from China: e-commerce air volumes to the EU halved in September

THURSDAY, 29 OCTOBER 2026

In September the tonnes of low-value e-commerce flown from China to the Union fell by 50%. In the Netherlands parcel declarations dropped by 70% while regular ones rose by 43%: stock is moving to Europe.

Parcels from China: in September the tonnes of low-value e-commerce flown from China to the European Union were half the level of a year earlier, -50% according to data from the analytics firm Aevean. It is the most visible effect of the European 3-euro duty in force since 1 July, to which a 2-euro handling fee is added from 1 November.

Parcels from China: the September figures

The drop towards Europe is the steepest among the destinations tracked by Aevean, which measures the weight of small e-commerce parcels moved by air. On other routes the decline is far more contained, which singles out Europe: the one factor that changes only there is the customs levy on parcels under 150 euros. The link is drawn by Aevean's own managing director, Marco Bloemen; Dutch Customs, more cautious, write that the causes are still being examined together with the European Commission.

• Low-value China-EU e-commerce by air, September 2026: -50% in tonnes compared with September 2025.
• Low-value e-commerce from China to all destinations, September 2026: -19% year on year; to North America -4%, to the rest of Asia-Pacific -5%.
• E-commerce declaration lines in the Netherlands, August and September 2026: about -70% on the same months of 2025; lines in the regular declaration system: +43%.
• Declarations for low-value imports in Belgium: about 166 million in June 2026, about 29.5 million in September (-82%).
• Revenue from the 3-euro duty in Belgium, from 1 July to 27 September 2026: 364 million euros.

Why volumes are falling: a duty per product type

Until 30 June goods under 150 euros entered the Union duty-free. Since 1 July 2026 a charge of 3 euros applies to each product type in the consignment, as Dutch Customs explain. Charging per product type, not per item, has a direct consequence: a parcel with ten identical items pays once, a parcel with ten different items pays ten times.

For an online seller shipping a mixed order from China, the fixed cost per parcel grows with the number of different items. The Dutch advisory firm Holdwise has estimated the effect on a typical order, a T-shirt and a watch: about 19.50 euros of costs across duty, handling, postage and clearance if the order ships directly from China, about 10 euros if it ships from a warehouse in the Netherlands restocked by sea. The estimate already includes the 2-euro fee that has yet to come into force.

From single parcels to stock in Europe

The most interesting Dutch figure is not the drop but what grows over the same period: regular declaration lines, those for normal imports, rise by 43%. According to Dutch Customs, many Chinese sellers appear to be importing goods in bulk to store them in the Union and ship them from there to the end customer. Other member states, the Dutch administration adds, also report fewer e-commerce declarations.

The figure does not prove that all the volume lost in parcels has moved into containers: part of it may be demand that has disappeared, part may be circumvention of the rules, which customs and the Commission are looking into. It does point to a change of model: a share of Chinese online trade is moving from the single air parcel to bulk imports, that is to the same circuit of containers, regular clearance and warehousing used by companies that import to resell.

What it means for importers

For Italian companies that buy consumer goods, promotional items or accessories in China, the numbers suggest three practical readings.

The first concerns competition. The price advantage of the seller who ships directly from China to the consumer shrinks by a few euros per order, and it is precisely the low-cost product range where many importers operate. The data do not say how much retail prices will change, but it is worth updating the price comparisons with marketplaces that were made a year ago.

The second concerns how shipments are made up. Samples, spare parts and small reorders sent by express courier under 150 euros also pay the duty per product type: ten different product types in the same parcel cost 30 euros in duty, which rises from 1 November with the handling fee. It makes sense to group reorders into larger shipments or merge them into the main order.

The third concerns logistics in Europe. If some online sellers bring their stock into the Union, demand for warehouse space and regular customs clearance services may grow. The Dutch figure does not measure the effect on rates and availability, but it is a signal worth keeping in mind when renegotiating storage contracts for 2027.

The 2-euro fee arrives on 1 November

On Sunday 1 November the European 2-euro customs handling fee comes into force, on top of the 3-euro duty on low-value consignments. Sources do not yet agree on the basis of calculation, per product type or per parcel: before running the numbers on samples and small shipments, it is worth asking the forwarder or courier for confirmation. In Italy there is also the national 2-euro levy, postponed to 1 January 2027.

With La Merce, reorders and samples from China that today travel in parcels under 150 euros can be consolidated into the main order instead of travelling parcel by parcel, each with its own 3-euro duty per product type and, from Sunday, the 2-euro fee.

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