Vietnam manufacturing PMI at 52.3 in October, but export orders fall

MONDAY, 2 NOVEMBER 2026

The S&P Global index rises from 51.9 to 52.3, but export orders fall, supplier deliveries are the slowest since April and costs rise at the fastest pace since June. What to check in orders placed in Vietnam.

Vietnam manufacturing PMI: in October the S&P Global index rose to 52.3 from 51.9, so activity is still growing. But behind the number are falling export orders, the slowest supplier deliveries since April and accelerating input costs: signals worth reading for anyone buying in Vietnam.

Vietnam manufacturing PMI: what October shows

The PMI (purchasing managers' index) is a monthly survey of manufacturers: above 50 signals an improvement on the previous month, below 50 a deterioration. The October figure was released on 2 November and is seasonally adjusted. It does not measure the value of output or exports in dollars, but the share of companies reporting increases or decreases in orders, output, staff, deliveries and stocks.

• Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 in October, from 51.9 in September.
• Total new orders: up for the sixth month in a row, but at the slowest pace of the current run.
• New export orders: down in October, a drag on overall demand.
• Suppliers' delivery times: lengthened more than in any month since April, due to fuel costs and bad weather.
• Input costs: accelerating for the second month, at the fastest pace since June.

Why the index rises while orders and output slow

The PMI is a weighted average of five components: new orders 30%, output 25%, employment 20%, suppliers' delivery times 15%, stocks of purchases 10%. In the method described by China's statistics bureau, which uses the same five sub-indices and weights as the S&P Global survey, delivery times enter inverted: slower deliveries push the index up, because they usually come with strong demand.

In October output and new orders grew less than in September, output at the weakest pace in six months, and employment fell for the third month running. The sub-index values are not public, so the weight of each cannot be calculated. The composition does suggest, however, that part of the rise comes from slower deliveries, which this time reflect fuel, weather and difficulty sourcing raw materials rather than excess demand.

Rising costs and higher selling prices

According to the survey, some companies struggled to obtain raw materials, which limited output. Input costs rose on oil, fuel and transport; the increase nonetheless remains well below the spike recorded after the war in the Middle East broke out. Manufacturers raised selling prices faster than in September, when the increase had been slight.

Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, notes that Vietnamese firms are battling to maintain growth and that the limits often come from the international environment. Expectations for output over the next twelve months nonetheless rose to an eight-month high, on hopes of better raw material availability and market conditions.

What it means for importers buying from Vietnam

The picture does not say that Vietnamese factories have spare capacity or that they are full: it says they are working with more domestic than foreign orders, less regular upstream supplies and rising costs. For anyone with orders running or being prepared, it points to a few concrete checks.

It is worth asking the supplier whether the materials for the order are already in stock or still to be bought: with upstream deliveries at their slowest since April, that is where time gets lost. It makes sense to set the cargo-ready date in the contract along with a cut-off date beyond which terms are renegotiated, and to allow a few days of margin on departure. On prices, the faster rise in selling prices suggests confirming the validity of the offer in writing and clarifying whether any increase in raw materials or inland transport can be passed on to the order.

The fall in export orders, on the other hand, may make some manufacturers more flexible on minimum quantities and lead times, especially for orders scheduled for the first quarter. The aggregate figure does not say which sectors this applies to: it has to be checked case by case.

With La Merce, an order in Vietnam after the October PMI starts with a check of raw materials at the factory, a cargo-ready date written into the contract and a price locked before costs, rising at the fastest pace since June, reach the invoice.

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