Suez transits: the return is mostly on voyages back to Asia

FRIDAY, 18 SEPTEMBER 2026

Il 73% dei viaggi continua a girare attorno al Capo di Buona Speranza. Dal Mediterraneo verso l’Asia la quota Suez tocca il 57%, dal Nord Europa il 27%.

Suez transits are increasing, but not in the direction that matters to importers. The return of container ships to the canal concerns mainly return voyages towards Asia; on the leg that brings goods to Europe the share remains much lower.

Suez transits: the two directions do not look alike

An analysis by Sea-Intelligence has measured the share of capacity passing through the canal in the weeks between early September and early October, separating the two directions of travel.

• Suez share on voyages from Asia to Europe: between 13% and 25%
• Suez share on return voyages towards Asia: between 25% and 47%
• The same share on returns during August: between 18% and 26%
• Returns from the Mediterranean to Asia in September: 57%
• Average Red Sea transits over the period: 27%, against 73% still routing around the Cape of Good Hope

The geographical detail adds another difference: from the Mediterranean to Asia the share reaches 57%, from Northern Europe it stops at 27%.

Why direction matters

The headline going around these days is "ships are back in Suez". True, but it is worth asking on which leg.

If you import from Asia, the leg that concerns you is the westbound one towards Europe, and that is where the return is least advanced: between 13% and 25% of capacity, meaning between three quarters and nine tenths of voyages still on the long route. The overall average figure, 27% via the Red Sea against 73% around Africa, describes the real situation better than the announcements do.

The practical consequence is simple: as long as the westbound share stays in that range, the shortening of transit times concerns a minority of sailings. Knowing which of the two halves your ship is in is worth more than any average.

The explanation, and who offers it

According to Sea-Intelligence this preference for return legs indicates that carriers are prioritising the repositioning of ships towards Asia, to address the operational shortfalls created by congestion and delays at Asian hubs. Among vessels leaving the Mediterranean they would be favouring those offering the fastest return to Asia.

It is a reading consistent with the data and with what is observed at Asian ports, but it remains the interpretation of whoever did the analysis: the numbers measure how many transits occur in each direction, not the intentions of those setting the routes. The distinction matters, because different motives imply different expectations about how long the situation will last.

If the explanation is right, rebalancing between the two directions will depend on when Asian congestion eases, rather than on security in the Red Sea. If it is not, the calendar will be a different one. From outside, for now, the asymmetry can be recorded and its cause cannot.

What changes for buyers in Asia

The first point is the question to ask. There is no use asking your forwarder whether the service is back on Suez, but rather which route the vessel carrying your booked cargo is taking: within the same week, sailings on both routes coexist, and the difference in days is not marginal.

The second concerns the dates you promise. With three quarters of westbound voyages still around Africa, building a delivery promise on the assumption of the short transit means betting on a minority of cases.

The third concerns freight rates, and should be read the other way round. A shorter route uses fewer ships to maintain the same frequency: if the return extended to the westbound leg too, the capacity freed would come back to the market. It is one of the factors weighing on rates in the coming months, and worth bearing in mind when negotiating term contracts.

With La Merce, reading Suez transits means telling the outbound leg from the return one before recalculating a delivery time, because today the canal has come back mainly for ships heading to Asia, not for those bringing goods to Europe.

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